Saturday, July 27, 2013

Imminent danger of another fast drop

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning July 29, 2013

The alarm bells are now ringing continuously, and at full volume ... warning that stock markets are on the verge of another sharp decline.

For the moment, it is unlikely the Bull run has reached its final High. But that peak may be less than 5% away from Friday's closing price on Pollyanna - Wall Street's SP500 index.

Some markets may already have entered another correction mode; it could be delayed another few days for Wall Street.

Even if that is the case, however, Miss Polly is probably less than 2% away from an intermediate peak.

In plain-speak ... there is probably very little upside left for either the completion of this upleg OR the 5-year Bull run which has been underway since 2009.

We will spend most of this edition looking closely at the state of the SP500, as the proxy for the major world indices; and at the ASX200, as a proxy for the resource-heavy markets.

And we are in the middle of an astrological high-energy zone, with 5 major planetary aspects now in play ... Sun square Saturn and Mars opposed Pluto this weekend, Venus trine Pluto and Mars square Uranus occurring mid-week, and Sun trine Uranus next weekend.

A little more about the potential impact of those as we go through some charts

In recent weeks I've been using various charts to illustrate some lessons in positive and negative divergence, from The Technical Section of The Idiot & The Moon.

And we'll continue that this weekend, starting with Pollyanna's daily chart. While Price has gone higher, our favorite oscillator, the Big Bird, has been singing increasingly out of tune.



It's a warning the 500 may already have reached the top of its bounce from the low of its recent multi-week correction. I'm not convinced that is the case, but I'll deal with the details of that a little later.

What is much worse than daily Big Bird starting to screech, is that weekly Big Bird, in the chart below, is falling off its perch - warning that the next correction is likely to fall through the rising trendline which has underpinned the rise from last year.

However, in the long-range monthly chart below there are still only preliminary, early-warning signs that the Bull is fading, but probably not yet terminally ill.

Note that in the run-up to the 2007 peaks, Big Bird's peaks also rose - right up until the topping "process" which took place from May to October of that year, when the Bird started to diverge significantly. And it is now starting to give similar signals.
So, while the short-term and intermediate-range signals are now starting to screech horribly, and there is now considerably increased danger of another major correction starting, it is still too early to be calling the final top of the Bull with a high degree of certainty.

Those of you holding Long positions in American indices, or in stocks which tend to follow the indices, do need to have an escape plan on standby to protect your profits and your capital.

In part, because the final peak may be less than 5% higher than Friday's close. And the downside, even for a multi-week correction, is higher.

Most of you have been with me now long enough to understand my Weekly Planets and Long Range Planets charts for various indices. Below is a variation on Pollyanna's long-range. These are major planetary Support/Resistance levels for the index and I use daily bars, rather than the normal monthly candles, so that their importance to the price action becomes even more obvious.

It is possible, perhaps even probable, that the 500 still has enough spurt left for another brief upleg before we hit the danger period of the August/September timeframe - traditionally the two weakest months of the year for the American indices.

But, the maximum reach for the final minor wave up in this rising leg is probably only 1.6% away. The peak of the entire post-2009 rally may be only 4.7% away.
There are three obvious target zones for another downside correction - and we're talking only about an intermediate-length correction, not a full-on resumption of Bear mode.

Now, I spent a little time last weekend trying to explain why it is that astrologers sometimes get in wrong trying to time a market turn in conjunction with major planetary aspects. And it is simply that to be certain of a turn, the Price of an index or stock MUST meet exactly with the Time and price level of the aspect.

The chart below shows all the important levels for the 5 aspects I mentioned near the start of this edition. Note that Friday's bar for the 500 dropped down to where the falling, dashed green line intersects the dashed, light blue line. This is the exact Time/Price crossing point for the Sun square Saturn aspect happening this weekend.

While the Time is not exact because the aspect is happening while the market is closed, we can see there was a reaction - a strong bounce. There is a planetary resistance cluster around 1700 - a cluster the index could not get through last week. If it does, there's a zone relatively free of resistance until 1720ish. And that one is more than a cluster; it's an important long-range level from the earlier chart.


Now, while it is possible that Pollyanna and other indices have already entered another correction mode, there are a couple of reasons I'm not utterly convinced ... even though there is no question daily and weekly Big Birds are very, very unhappy with current prices.

And it's simply that the "odds" are against it. For a start, it's the final week of the month and that's normally positive.

In terms of The Moods of The Moon, we now enter the 3Q-NM phase, which is statistically positive.

To the left is one of the illustrations from Forecast 2013, detailing exactly how Pollyanna behaved during The Moods of The Moon throughout 2012.

Only four of the 3Q-NM periods last year were negative - and none of them occurred during this part of the year.

So ...

A Friday candle which went down to the exact Sun/Saturn crossing price, but bounced back - apparently rejecting the level.

The traditionally positive period that occurs regularly at the end of a month into the first days of the next month.

We are in the rising lunar phase between Full Moon and New Moon, specifically the 7 days from three-quarter Moon to New Moon, which tends to be positive in the middle of the year - even though that is the weak "season" for stock prices.

For these reasons, I tend to think the bounceback is not quite done.

I could be wrong, of course. It wouldn't be the first time and it won't be the last. Still, I'm inclined to go with what I think the odds are. Even so, I doubt there is very much upside - short-term, or now even long-term.

So, that's where I think we are with the SP500 and how it behaves will affect most Western indices, especially the Europeans.

Now let's take a look at my home index, the ASX200, which might also be a guide to markets like Canada and Brazil. Here, we see a potential problem. While Polly on Friday went down into Sun/Saturn and bounced, Auntie on Friday stuck her head above the level, but closed below it.

Again I caution that this was not a PRECISE meeting of Time and Price because the astrological aspect did not become exact until after Friday. But, it is another klaxon going off loudly. In the chart below, the oscillator is the 20CCI - a medium-range Bird. And it ain't happy!

We also need to be aware that the 5050 price is an important Weekly Planet level for the ASX200 and was one of our primary targets for a bounceback once the recent correction ended. Again, the oscillator used in the chart below is the medium Bird. And it's NOT unhappy.

So we do have some contradiction evident between the two charts. If the index does manage to overcome the 5050 barrier in the next few days, there are no aspect price crossing points in reasonable range; only the important Neptune level in the 5140s. If the index drops, we would need to watch the reaction closely if it goes into the Sun-Uranus price crossing in the 4920s next weekend.

In terms of months ahead, rather than the next few weeks, I would make the same comment I made about Pollyanna. I do not, at this stage, hear major alarm bells starting to become strident. In the chart below the oscillator is Big Bird ... and he is only just starting to display potential divergence.

The last price peak saw Big Bird confirm its validity. It's the next price peak we have to worry about. The Support/Resistance levels on the chart below are purely technical. Yes, they'll be very close to Fibonacci or planetary levels. It's just an example of how we can know important price levels well in advance just by anchoring a few horizontal lines at levels which have been important in the past.

The boxed numbers are the amounts the index lost during the three biggest corrections since the last Bear collapse ended.



And I would repeat the point I made about Pollyanna. Again, one of  The Moods of The Moon tables from Forecast 2013.

While Miss Polly had four negative 3Q-NM phases last year, the Auntie had only three.

None in this part of the year.

So, while Auntie's behaviour in failing to break above the Sun square Saturn price crossing level on Friday is a cause for some concern, I am not convinced even this small upleg is quite finished.

The statistical odds are against it ... and there is no obvious screeching from the weekly or monthly Birds.

Even so, Auntie is a Neptunian index and if it does break out northwards early this week, the 5148 level is only 2% away.

I think then it's reasonably clear that even if the buoyant phase of the monthly lunar cycle plays out statistically, there is not a huge amount of near-term upside left on the table.

Especially, given the shrillness of the alarm bells now going off in the daily and weekly charts for the SP500.

Next weekend ... some more targets for The Top in a few more of the major stock indices.

Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne
Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013 , Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013  Sale price 1/2 off!
  • Major trend change dates for the full year, plus a month-by-month breakdown of high-energy trading dates and critical reversal dates.

  • An index-by-index analysis of Moon Trading across major American, European, Asian and Australian stock indices-

  • Identifies the major indices where following the phases of the Moon can dramatically cut profits, or even result in large losses.

  • Old Gods & Gold ... a Eureka! discovery about exactly what drives gold prices during rallies and corrections and charts showing highly-reliable target levels to both the upside and downside.

These price charts are individually-tailored to each index and cover Wall Street, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, India, England, Germany and France.

You will not see these charts anywhere else on the Internet!

And much more...

It is NEVER too late in the year to have this monthly information!
Sale Price $10.00

Saturday, July 20, 2013

A major shift in planetary energies

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning July 22, 2013
A major shift in planetary energies
Shift in planetary energy
Wall Street completed its Grand Trine week with the SP500 closing at a new all-time High.

But the rest of the world did not. It has been one of those relatively rare instances where American markets rallied all the way through the Mercury Retrograde cycle.

And that's part of what now leaves everyone just a little more vulnerable.

Because this week brings a major mood shift as various planets change signs, or direction. The Sun goes into Leo, Venus into Virgo; Uranus has gone Retrograde and Mercury is turning Direct again.

Mars will conjunct Jupiter, providing a last burst of energy to the Grand Trine involving Jupiter, Saturn and Neptune. By the end of the week, the energy shift of the planets could turn markets from optimism to pessimism.

The Sun will square Saturn and Mars will start igniting the Uranus/Pluto square again ... as a precursor to Jupiter making the same aspects in what I mentioned last weekend Ray Merriman calls a bankruptcy signature.

Since we've been discussing the danger that markets are now in the process of topping-out the Bull run, I'll publish some more targets for non-American markets this weekend.

We will deal first, however, with a little more of The Spooky Stuff. Probably the two most significant transits in the immediate future are the Mars conjunction to Jupiter followed by Mars square Uranus.

Many of you may have heard dire, dire warnings of ... gasp*shock*horror ... "the Mars-Uranus crash cycle". I have dealt with this before. It's carp. And, yes, that's a misspelling. Mars makes some aspect with Uranus a couple of times a year ... and the hard aspects have no regular, reliable track record of producing a crash. Not even a little one.

In the chart below I have marked the Mars-Jupiter conjunctions with thick blue bars and Mars-Uranus squares with thick red ones. We have eight examples of Mars-Uranus squares ... and not a single one of them produced any sort of crash. In fact, one could argue the reverse.

There is more danger of Mars-Jupiter conjunctions producing an intermediate top.
click for larger image
Either one of these aspects does carry enough punch to turn markets in a new direction. BUT! Time and Price have to "meet" precisely before one can predict a change with any degree of certainty.

I was watching Pollyanna, the SP500, and the ASX 200 quite closely last week to see if either of them intended making that "meeting". They didn't.

But, they do have another chance early this week. For Pollyanna, the two key Price levels are at 1704 and 1654. Allow about $3 either side of those numbers.

IF Miss Pollyanna jumps to 1704 and immediately starts to back down strongly, get out of Dodge! This is the Time & Price meeting place in space for the whole Mars-Jupiter-Saturn-Neptune interchange.
click for larger image
It's interesting that Miss Polly was not the only index to studiously avoid that meeting last week. So close ... and, yet, so far, was also the case for the ASX 200.

Auntie ASX just stopped in mid-air, flatly refusing to go to a meeting that could have forced the index to change direction.
click for larger image
And it was mid-air, which is a little more obvious in my personal planetary chart for the ASX below. Had either of these indices hit those exact price levels and failed to break through, it would have been a very bad sign for further gains in the intermediate future.

The Time & Price meeting place is activated again early this coming week and the action - and reaction - will have to be watched very closely if Polly hits the very early 1700s, or 5042ish for Auntie.
click for larger image
 Failure to hit the exact Price levels, on Time, makes it a lot more difficult to determine a significant change of direction.

Now, I showed Bull target levels for Pollyanna, the FTSE and the ASX last weekend and indicated I'd update charts for other indices in the coming weeks.

This weekend, we'll look at India, Singapore and Shanghai.

INDIA

Our first chart is a long-range monthly for the Sensex. It is once again approaching the key level in the 20,200s ... and with a medium-term oscillator looking distinctly unhappy. Obviously, to eliminate the danger implied by making a triple-top, the index needs to break through the long-range barrier decisively.
click for larger image
The Weekly Planets chart for the Nifty is below. It ended last week retesting a Saturn-Neptune price zone. It's a key level the index must break through decisively to trigger the final potential targets for India's Bull.
click for larger image
If it can do that, the next danger zone is in the range from about 6200 to the mid 6400s. This is the range of the planetary line-up which stopped the two previous Bull peaks. If the Nifty gets through that barrier, the target becomes the 7000s.
click for larger image
 SINGAPORE

The STI is also approaching a key barrier. I used the American charts last week to show how Big Bird and the medium-range oscillator tend to give advance warning when markets are making either a long-range top, or bottom.

And there are further examples below. The double-bottom in Price terms of the early 2000s Bear showed clear positive divergence in the oscillator ... as the run into the 2007 Bull peak showed clear negative divergence.

And then, another obvious case of positive divergence at the 2009 Bear bottom. And I repeat what I've been saying about Pollyanna ... we are not yet receiving warning sirens that suggest we are in dire and imminent danger. There is some relatively mild divergence in the current state of the oscillator versus price. The sirens are starting to go off ... but they're not yet becoming strident.
click for larger image
Now, while the chart above shows a technical level of significant resistance in the early 3300s, the STI's Weekly Planets chart, below, offers three higher targets if the topping process is going to continue into the August-October timeframe.
click for larger image
CHINA

It's difficult to get a read on Shanghai, which continues to test the validity of the Bear low. Mild positive divergence in the oscillator seems to be trying to build, but so far can't manage to get traction.
click for larger image


But the index needs to recover the Neptune level at around 2056 on the long-range planetary chart below ... or it's in danger of plunging another 25%.
click for larger image
Okay, for those of you unskilled in technical mischief, you can do a right-click on any of these charts and save them as an image to consult in the coming weeks. Yes, I know ... India, Singapore, China. Not a lot of technical ineptitude going on there.

Keep a close eye on what prices Polly and Auntie get up to on Monday/Tuesday. Loud warning sirens if Polly especially goes to around 1704 and poops her panties! If she goes through ... decisively ... we'll probably go back into goo-goo/ga-ga/gush mode.

Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne
Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013 , Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013  Sale price 1/2 off!
  • Major trend change dates for the full year, plus a month-by-month breakdown of high-energy trading dates and critical reversal dates.

  • An index-by-index analysis of Moon Trading across major American, European, Asian and Australian stock indices-

  • Identifies the major indices where following the phases of the Moon can dramatically cut profits, or even result in large losses.

  • Old Gods & Gold ... a Eureka! discovery about exactly what drives gold prices during rallies and corrections and charts showing highly-reliable target levels to both the upside and downside.

These price charts are individually-tailored to each index and cover Wall Street, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, India, England, Germany and France.

You will not see these charts anywhere else on the Internet!

And much more...

It is NEVER too late in the year to have this monthly information!
Sale Price $10.00

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Mercury musings

by Marlene Pfeifle

Mercury is RX and nothing can be assumed. Even astrological expectations!
 
Randall Ashbourne's Eye of RA report for the week beginning July 15 discusses "Targets for the Top of the Bull Market," and that the normal Mercury Retrograde spurt-and-reverse cycle has not played out. He reminds us that astrological expectations never over-ride technical conditions.

Markets are usually volatile during Mercury Rx, and Mercurial Mishaps may occur to shake up the market. It is a time when normal price support and resistance lines fail. Randall discusses the technical conditions in his weekend report.

Upcoming this week is the powerful Jupiter-Saturn-Neptune grand trine, July 17-19.

Additionally, on July 27, 2013, as the Moon transits Taurus, another powerful and very rare astrological pattern called a Grand Sextile, or Star of David, will occur. A sextile is an astrological pattern that presents us with opportunities - this Grand Sextile should highlight the influence of two very powerful Grand Trines.

I wrote in my New Moon newsletter that this upcoming Grand Trine between Jupiter-Saturn-and Neptune by itself, is fortunate, and should add a stabilizing effect for businesses in the gas, oil, and chemical sector - Jupiter and Neptune have rulership over Crude. This aspect also benefits service organizations, hospital and charities.

But I also warned that Saturn changing direction (stationing direct)may create volatility in the market. Saturn changing directions in the market has in the past coincided with market reversals.

ASTROLOGY SHOP SALE! Click here.

Randall Ashbourne's eBook,
 The Idiot and The Moon, FORECAST 2013, on sale $10.00

Astrological calendars
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Saturday, July 13, 2013

Targets for The Top of the Bull market

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning July 15, 2013
Targets for The Top of the Bull market
".. astrological expectations never over-ride
technical conditions"
We will spend some time this weekend reviewing the growing danger signals that the Bull run is topping out.

I indicated last weekend: "There is a strong chance, at least from an astrological viewpoint, that the next downleg of the multi-week correction is due to start."

However, the normal Mercury Retrograde spurt-and-reverse cycle has not played out.

I did also say: "There is some chance the correction is over and the bounce will continue. July tends to be a stronger month for the Wall Street indices than June."

However, repeating that now is just mealy-mouthed arse-covering. Basically, I got it wrong. I'd thought the normal tendency of the Merc Rx cycle, combined with the statistical negativity of the New Moon to Full Moon period would drag on stock markets and it didn't.

There is some danger everyone will do a complete "re-think" when Mercury goes Direct again at the end of this week, especially since the Grand Trine involving Jupiter, Saturn and Neptune becomes exact mid-week. I dealt with this recently and the full report can be found in the Archives.

Once that aspect finishes, the next major one will be Jupiter making a T-square with Uranus and Pluto, an aspect renowned financial astrologer Ray Merriman describes as a "classical" bankruptcy signature.

But, I am much less concerned with The Spooky Stuff  than I am with the warning sirens starting to go off in the technical condition of the markets - especially on Wall Street where everyone is hooked on the cheap money the US Federal Reserve has been pumping into the financial system.

Every few years the May to October timeframe produces market behaviour which turns out to be a major, long-range turning point. And this may well be one of those times.

So, let's begin. And, courtesy of the Incredible Charts software, we'll start with a quarterly chart of the Dow Jones Industrials. At an eyeball glance, the DJI appears to be making a multi-decade megaphone pattern. And it has the uberBears drooling. They believe the Dow is getting set to drop not just to the lower line of the "jaws of death", but will plunge down through it.

Maybe, maybe not. That's something we'll have to try to judge sometime in the future; not now. What is concerning is that these new price highs in the DJI are not being fully-endorsed by the mid-range oscillator. I've placed an orange horizontal at its recent peak - and it's a level that has shown up as marking out a topping pattern several times.

For the moment, the oscillator is maintaining its own uptrend angle from the Bear bottom in 2009. But it is starting to falter.
click for larger image
 We'll go next to a DJI monthly chart and use the 50CCI ... what I call the long-range Canary, or the Big Bird. We've been watching and waiting for a while now for Big Bird to start to diverge from the price action. If you look at the 2007 topping pattern, I've put a thick, red diagonal on the May-October price action of that year ... and while it went north, Big Bird went south during that period.

For the moment, the DJI's price continues at an angle which is too far, too fast to be sustained ... and while the price of the index has climbed above the 2007 peak, Big Bird has not reached the lofty levels it did then; which is long-range negative divergence in itself.
click for larger view
Next we go to the weekly chart. And it's here we see the warning sirens are starting to become quite strident. Divergence between the price and the weekly version of Big Bird became very, very obvious ... and the warning is not simply that Big Bird went down the falling red diagonal while price rode the climbing red diagonal in that timeframe.

You'll see a thin, orange horizontal in both price and oscillator areas. Price came down and turned back up after reaching the level of an earlier consolidation. Big Bird didn't; it plunged through. It did not lose the +100 level, which is near-term Bullish.

But! The warning sirens are going off and week-by-week, they're starting to get a little louder.
click for larger image
 In 2007, markets put in a volatile topping pattern from May through to October; in 2011 they plunged during that period. It's a timeframe which needs to be watched carefully - especially if a Bull market top is now being put in place.

And we can see the potential for that to happen in Pollyanna, the SP500, as well as the DJI. While the Dow nears the top line of the megaphone, Miss Polly is rising again to challenge the top of her channel - a redline barrier with a history of producing sharp price reversals when it's breached.
click for larger image
 Monthly Big Bird has not started to screech horribly in the chart above - though it's still below its 2007 peak, with the price of the index higher. That's not exactly a sweet, clear song.

And weekly Big Bird in the chart below is now getting distinctly unhappy.
click for larger image
 I've been stressing lately that the danger signs are increasing; which doesn't mean that The Top has already been reached. Well, not for Wall Street. I think some other indices have probably arrived at their Bull highs and are now just marking time, waiting for Wall Street to face the reality that printing money to prop-up stock prices is ... "irrational exuberance". Again. Slow learners.

To find out exactly where Miss Pollyanna might top out this Bull run, I do need to turn to The Spooky Stuff ... my long-range planetary price chart for the index.

I had fully expected this run to stop, or at least stall heavily, in the Pluto/Node range from 1519 to 1574. The state of the Birds never did agree with me. As I've said often: astrological expectations never over-ride technical conditions. And they didn't this time, either.
click for larger image
Anyway, the chart above gives three clear potential target areas for the Bull to exhaust himself at. Over the course of the next few weeks, I'll try to update the targets for other indices, including the major Europeans, India and Asia.

Fairly regularly, I update what I call my Weekly Planets charts for various indices - and if you're not taking advantage of them, you're mad. It's really not that hard. You do need to be able to use an oscillator in conjunction with the price targets to know when the technical signals for a turn are obvious.

I had a truly irritating email during the week from someone who asked: "What's an oscillator?" Well, darling, if you're too damn dumb, or too damn lazy, to spend a few minutes going through these FREE weekly reports, don't waste my bloody time.

For those of you do read and seek to learn - and that, I know, is about 99.98% of readers - here's a quick how-to using the FTSE WP and ASX200 WP charts.

Given the level of negative divergence in the Big Bird as the FTSE temporarily breached the 6849 level, it was a fairly safe place to Short that index. There was no early positive divergence signal as the index breached 6047, though the rapid recovery did indicate it was a reasonable place to go Long again.

click for larger image
It was pretty much a case of "ditto" for the 200, where there was oscillator divergence at the price high and a small case of positive divergence at the price low.

Remember these are weekly charts and the dailies can be used for fine-tuning Entry and Exit points ... Just as I did earlier in the Dow charts. The quarterly shows the danger signs starting, but not strident ... while the weekly shows just how strongly the klaxons are starting to growl.

Using the Weekly Planets charts for intermediate-range moves is just a variation. They set the potential targets, but you use daily charts to tell you whether your anticipated trade is ready for Entry or Exit. And once the move starts, in either direction, you have ideal prices to use as the base for Loss Stop provisions.
click for larger image
Okay, that's a wrap for this weekend. Frankly, I have no idea what the short-term direction is ... and I believe Benign Ben is due to make an appearance before the House this week. Personally, I live in dread anytime Ben is presented with an opportunity to "clarify" the Fed's current position!
 Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne
Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013 , Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013  Sale price 1/2 off!
  • Major trend change dates for the full year, plus a month-by-month breakdown of high-energy trading dates and critical reversal dates.

  • An index-by-index analysis of Moon Trading across major American, European, Asian and Australian stock indices-

  • Identifies the major indices where following the phases of the Moon can dramatically cut profits, or even result in large losses.

  • Old Gods & Gold ... a Eureka! discovery about exactly what drives gold prices during rallies and corrections and charts showing highly-reliable target levels to both the upside and downside.

These price charts are individually-tailored to each index and cover Wall Street, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, India, England, Germany and France.

You will not see these charts anywhere else on the Internet!

And much more...

It is NEVER too late in the year to have this monthly information!
Sale Price $10.00

Sunday, July 7, 2013

An Astrological Trip Around the New Moon in Cancer Chart

Astrological Investing New Moon forecasts show general trends and financial outlook for the month. The New Moon in Cancer,  2013  - Chart from the point of view of Wall Street and the NYSE.

horoscope of the Cancef New Moon, NY NY
The New Moon in Cancer, 2013
Chart from point of view of Wall Street and the NYSE
Summer has arrived - and its time for a vacation!

Mercury is retrograde, and that is always a great time to rest, relax, slow down and take a vacation.  Previous to this New Moon,  Americans celebrated July 4th  - the USA's Independence Day- typically a time for family vacations in the USA - a time for picnics, celebrations, and grand fireworks displays.

In fact, as I write this newsletter I am on a family vacation!

AN ASTROLOGICAL TRIP AROUND THE NEW MOON IN CANCER CHART

SEEING THE WHOLE PICTURE
A mundane horoscope for the lunar month using the longitude and latitude of the NYSE gives us a broad picture of the astrological landscape we expect to encounter in the financial market during the month.

Financial astrology is a useful timing tool that gives us a "heads up" on what to expect - knowing the potential energy how the market is affected by various planets and the aspects they make, in addition to what technical charts tell us, helps us to reduce the risk we take in the market.

Astrological Investing's Associate Randall Ashbourne's Eye of RA weekly report sheds additional light on the markets - I urge you to read these weekend stock market reports. They are published on his web site, The Idiot and the Moon, as well as on Astrological Investing's blog.

The week of July 1, 2013 is particularly informative as Randall discusses "The Dangers of Trines" !

NEW MOON IN THE SECOND HOUSE WITH MERCURY RX

Trade, money matters, increasing national expenditure, and legislation in Congress is the focus of attention for this lunar month. (Mundane Astrology: The Astrology of Nations and States by H. S. Green) With Mercury Rx, media may be reporting corrections of previous reporting on all these topics!

Markets are usually volatile during Mercury rx, so if you are in the market trading, "take profits too soon!" as Raymond Merriman likes to say. Mercurial Mishaps may occur to shake up the market. Stocks may suffer from false or incorrect reporting.

It is a time when normal price support and resistance lines fail, especially a few days before and after the stationing periods (when Mercury changes direction). Kaye Shinker always taught that usually about half way through the retrograde cycle you will see a change in the direction in the market only to return to where it started 90% of the time. Raymond Merriman says that "sharp swings of at least 4% tend to happen within only 4 days trading days , and usually within only 3 days of this signature." (From his book, The Ultimate Book On Stock Market Timing, Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles.)


To read this newsletter in full  - Click to read newsletter .

When reading the newsletter on the web site, be sure to take note of the Moon Phases section and get the "Head's Up" - upcoming astrological events list.

Moon Phases
FORECAST 2013 has an index-by-index analysis of Moon Trading across major American, European, Asian and Australian stock indices showing variations in the performance which can help traders time Entry and Exit levels for greatly enhanced profitability - the analysis also identifies those of the major indices where following the phases of the Moon can dramatically cut profits, or even result in large losses.

Read Randall Ashbourne's 2011 article, The Moods of the Moon - Trading the Mood Swings of the Monthly Lunar Cycle

Safe Trading! Marley

Saturday, July 6, 2013

Beware Merc Rx spurt-and-reverse

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning July 8, 2013


from an astrological viewpoint the next downleg is due to start
"..long as Big Bird - monthly, weekly, or daily - fluctuates ABOVE
the +100 line, your Long positions are reasonably safe."

The Idiot & the Moon,  Randall Ashbourne
We should find out in the next couple of days whether the bounce in stocks is over.

There is a strong chance, at least from an astrological viewpoint, that the next downleg of the multi-week correction is due to start.

We'll look at why that might be the case in a moment. Before we do, a brief recap. In the May 27 edition, I indicated there was a strong chance stock indices had gone into a multi-week correction.

Then, in the June 24 edition, I highlighted the potential for a bounceback. There is some chance the correction is over and the bounce will continue. July tends to be a stronger month for the Wall Street indices than June.

However, there are several things happening. We are now at the midrange of the current Mercury Retrograde phase and we have discussed in the past the general tendency of markets to start a trend at the Rx date which goes into reverse halfway through the cycle, to end the period within about 1% of where it all started.

On top of that tendency, we kick off with a New Moon ... Venus trining Uranus ... and Saturn changing from Rx mode to Direct.

However, it's the combination of the potential high point of a New Moon and the Mercury Rx spurt-and-reverse tendency which poses the biggest risk to further gains in the next week or two.

Venus trine Uranus is an important aspect since Venus rules money and Uranus rules stock markets - and the trine suggests a peak of money flow into the markets.

However, it's an aspect that occurs a couple of times a year and, on its own, doesn't regularly and reliably turn markets. Nor does Saturn changing to Direct mode.

The chart below shows past behaviour of the SP500 in the weeks following Venus-Uranus trines (the blue bars) and Saturn Direct (the red bars).

There are a few instances where the trines have produced a near-term low ... a few more where they've coincided with highs ... and some which seem to have virtually no impact on the prevailing trend direction. And I'm not sure, from an eyeball glance, we can expect the Saturn change of direction to have much impact at all on stock prices.
click for larger image
Should we get the "normal" behaviour - a New Moon to Full Moon stall or decline and a reversal halfway through the Merc Rx phase - the correction should complete in the next couple of weeks.

I'll just go briefly to the ASX200 Weekly Planets chart. I used this late in May to outline what I expected would happen and, for the most part, many stock indices have followed the general pattern. Some, like Pollyanna, didn't go deep enough fast enough to convince me that the correction ended a fortnight ago.

So far, the ASX seems to be repeating the same pattern it made during the correction in early 2012 - a fast plunge south followed by several weeks of bouncing around within a relatively narrow range.

There was negative divergence in the oscillator peak at the index price high and we're now seeing it start to record some positive divergence. But we can't be sure the correction is finished until we see a clear weekly close above the Saturn line in the mid-4800s.
click for larger image
I've put the opinion in the past few weeks that I think this correction IS a correction ... and that it's the last major one before Western stock indices make their final price high before a Bear market resumes.

And the reason I think the final Bull high is not yet in is the state of the oscillators in the chart below. Last year, I had expected markets to top out with Jupiter in Taurus. That has been a very strong tendency for many decades. But I did indicate there was what I called an "elephant in the room" threatening to poop all over my Bear rug.

It was the lack of negative divergence in the Big Bird ... the long-range Canary ... the 50CCI. It is the blue line in the oscillator panel and I highlighted the negative divergence obvious at the 2007 highs with the complete lack of such a signal during last year.

However, we are now seeing what is probably the start of such a set-up ... and I do emphasise the word "start" because topping tends to be a process, rather than an event.

The blue line Big Bird has started to roll over and there is a strong chance now that a new price high would occur with a lower peak in that oscillator. We're already starting to see it with the two faster Canaries. The medium-range Bird, the red line, actually peaked in March ... and the short-range green line peaked-out in January.
click for larger image
 We're also starting to see the same signatures in other indices. Below is the long-range planetary price chart for Germany's DAX. Price has fallen into a Neptune/Pluto range which put a stop to the two previous Bull runs ... and the Big Bird oscillator is rolling over quite distinctly.

click for larger image
And it's pretty much ditto with London's FTSE in the chart below. The important point to remember here is that the danger of a new Bear getting underway is relatively muted until the Big Bird loses the +100 upper red horizontal in the oscillator panel.

Check it out for yourself in each of these charts - including the ASX200 Weekly Planets. So long as Big Bird - monthly, weekly, or daily - fluctuates ABOVE the +100 line, your Long positions are reasonably safe. But! Once that barrier is broken to the downside, any plunge has a tendency to accelerate sharply.
click for larger image

And that's why I've been nagging you lately to go through your portfolio stocks very closely and, at the very least, put rigid loss stops in place.

I think the danger sirens are starting to wind-up. I seriously doubt we're at the stage where we need to run for the bomb shelters ... or get the hell out of Dodge. But, as we can see on the Pollyanna chart, two of the Canaries have started to croak. They're very much the early Birds.

But that's why we keep them ... to give us early warning that the internal strength of the Bull is starting to wane much more obviously than appears on the surface.

Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne
Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013 , Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013
  • Major trend change dates for the full year, plus a month-by-month breakdown of high-energy trading dates and critical reversal dates.

  • An index-by-index analysis of Moon Trading across major American, European, Asian and Australian stock indices-

  • Identifies the major indices where following the phases of the Moon can dramatically cut profits, or even result in large losses.

  • Old Gods & Gold ... a Eureka! discovery about exactly what drives gold prices during rallies and corrections and charts showing highly-reliable target levels to both the upside and downside.

These price charts are individually-tailored to each index and cover Wall Street, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, India, England, Germany and France.

You will not see these charts anywhere else on the Internet!

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